Playground - https://takeoffspeeds.com/

Tags
simulation
Date
Aug 29, 2023 2:03 PM

2022202420262028203020322034203620382040204220441e-21e+01e+21e+41e+61e+81e+101e+121e+141e+161e+181e+201e+221e+24

Takeoff metrics

Show the most important metrics the most important metricsthe most important metrics all metricsall metrics

100% automation year
20-100% economic automation
20-100% R&D automation
2040.0
3.7
5.0

Summary

Click here for the detailed year by year table.

Period
Year
Biggest training run
Fraction of goods and services tasks automated
Fraction of R&D tasks automated
Hardware performance growth rate
Hardware performance doubling time
Software growth rate
Software doubling time
Investment on compute growth rate
Investment on compute doubling time
Fraction of compute invested in training growth rate
Fraction of compute invested in training doubling time
GWP growth rate
GWP doubling time
Capital growth rate
Capital doubling time
Labour growth rate
Labour doubling time
R&D TFP growth rate
R&D TFP doubling time
Software R&D input growth rate
Software R&D input doubling time
Cumulative software R&D input growth rate
Cumulative software R&D input doubling time
Pre wake-up
2028.2
5.083080e+27
0.00
0.00
0.216816
3.196938
0.230165
3.011528
0.219263
3.161264
0.547500
1.266022
0.029246
23.700375
0.028244
24.541514
0.010000
69.314718
0.010000
69.314718
0.208105
3.330755
0.136715
5.070030
Wake-up
2034.4
6.369281e+29
0.06
0.18
0.268353
2.582965
0.275356
2.517274
0.298066
2.325484
0.990000
0.700149
0.115394
6.006790
0.030835
22.479390
0.010000
69.314718
0.010000
69.314718
0.506595
1.368246
0.173562
3.993669
Mid rampup
2036.2
1.755495e+31
0.20
0.41
0.491960
1.408951
0.424919
1.631244
0.404835
1.712171
0.635540
1.090643
0.216828
3.196767
0.039308
17.633924
0.010000
69.314718
0.010000
69.314718
0.794437
0.872501
0.274659
2.523665
Full economic automation
2040.0
4.619005e+35
1.00
1.00
4.725303
0.146688
11.337672
0.061137
0.554075
1.251000
0.000000
NaN
0.226382
3.061841
0.186690
3.712824
0.010000
69.314718
0.010000
69.314718
16.476445
0.042069
13.972110
0.049609

Metrics

2022202420262028203020322034203620382040204220441e+142e+143e+144e+145e+146e+147e+148e+141e+152e+15