2022202420262028203020322034203620382040204220441e-21e+01e+21e+41e+61e+81e+101e+121e+141e+161e+181e+201e+221e+24
Takeoff metrics
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100% automation year | 20-100% economic automation | 20-100% R&D automation |
2040.0 | 3.7 | 5.0 |
Summary
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Period | Year | Biggest training run | Fraction of goods and services tasks automated | Fraction of R&D tasks automated | Hardware performance growth rate | Hardware performance doubling time | Software growth rate | Software doubling time | Investment on compute growth rate | Investment on compute doubling time | Fraction of compute invested in training growth rate | Fraction of compute invested in training doubling time | GWP growth rate | GWP doubling time | Capital growth rate | Capital doubling time | Labour growth rate | Labour doubling time | R&D TFP growth rate | R&D TFP doubling time | Software R&D input growth rate | Software R&D input doubling time | Cumulative software R&D input growth rate | Cumulative software R&D input doubling time |
Pre wake-up | 2028.2 | 5.083080e+27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.216816 | 3.196938 | 0.230165 | 3.011528 | 0.219263 | 3.161264 | 0.547500 | 1.266022 | 0.029246 | 23.700375 | 0.028244 | 24.541514 | 0.010000 | 69.314718 | 0.010000 | 69.314718 | 0.208105 | 3.330755 | 0.136715 | 5.070030 |
Wake-up | 2034.4 | 6.369281e+29 | 0.06 | 0.18 | 0.268353 | 2.582965 | 0.275356 | 2.517274 | 0.298066 | 2.325484 | 0.990000 | 0.700149 | 0.115394 | 6.006790 | 0.030835 | 22.479390 | 0.010000 | 69.314718 | 0.010000 | 69.314718 | 0.506595 | 1.368246 | 0.173562 | 3.993669 |
Mid rampup | 2036.2 | 1.755495e+31 | 0.20 | 0.41 | 0.491960 | 1.408951 | 0.424919 | 1.631244 | 0.404835 | 1.712171 | 0.635540 | 1.090643 | 0.216828 | 3.196767 | 0.039308 | 17.633924 | 0.010000 | 69.314718 | 0.010000 | 69.314718 | 0.794437 | 0.872501 | 0.274659 | 2.523665 |
Full economic automation | 2040.0 | 4.619005e+35 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 4.725303 | 0.146688 | 11.337672 | 0.061137 | 0.554075 | 1.251000 | 0.000000 | NaN | 0.226382 | 3.061841 | 0.186690 | 3.712824 | 0.010000 | 69.314718 | 0.010000 | 69.314718 | 16.476445 | 0.042069 | 13.972110 | 0.049609 |
Metrics
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